Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Increase After Failed Assassination Attempt
Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election jumped following a failed assassination attempt on Saturday. Around 10 minutes into Trump’s speech at a rally in Pennsylvania, shots were fired. Trump was injured in his right ear and could be seen with his face streaked with blood. He was pumping his fist in the air while Secret Service agents tried to escort him to safety.
Trump’s campaign said that the former president is safe and did not suffer any major injuries apart from the one in his upper right ear, Reuters reported. A spectator died in the shooting while two others were critically injured, according to the Secret Service. The suspect was shot dead by the Secret Service.
The attempt on his life came days before Trump was set to accept the formal Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention on Monday. This is the first assassination attempt of a U.S. president or major party candidate since Ronald Reagan’s assassination attempt in 1981.
Trump said on his Truth Social service on Sunday that:
“In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win.”
President Joe Biden decried the violence saying, “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America.”
Trump’s Probability of Winning Increases on Betting Market
While most opinion polls show Trump and Biden to be locked in a close contest, traders on Polymarket think differently. Data from Polymarket shows that the ‘Yes’ shares of the contract on whether Trump will win the election rose from $0.60 to $0.70. This means that traders believe Trump has a 70% chance of winning the November elections.
Polymarket is an Ethereum-based prediction market where bets are programmed into a smart contract on Polygon, a layer 2 scaling solution. The bets are settled in USD Coin (USDC). Simply put, people who bet on ‘Yes’ for Trump winning the election will receive $1 if Trump actually wins but receive nothing if he loses.
The chances of Biden winning the election fell from 30% to 17% simultaneously, data on Polymarket shows. Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has only a 6% chance of winning, according to Polymarket traders.
Analyst Views Mirror Polymarket Traders
Polymarket traders are not the only ones who believe that the assassination attempt will likely increase Trump’s odds of winning the election. Tina Fordham, a geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told Reuters:
“We don’t expect there to be an initial reaction in financial markets. If anything, the near-term implication will be the acceleration of the consensus view in markets of a Trump victory.”
Similarly, Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AFTX Global said:
“I think it [assassination attempt] probably increases his [Trump’s] chances, and we will probably see some haven flows in the morning.”
Mirroring the views, Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, noted:
“The shooting is likely to bolster Trump’s support, and only further augments the positive momentum he has been enjoying following the Presidential debates two weeks ago.”
On the same noted, Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, stated that the failed assassination attempt “probably reduces uncertainty” with the election “likely to be a landslide” for Trump.
Ferres also cited historical data to back his claim. He noted that following Reagan’s assassination attempt, the polls showed a surge of support for him. Reagan’s approval rating spiked by 7% in the first poll conducted after the attempt, according to statistics recorded by the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara. However, the surge was temporary and subsided in the following months.
Trump-Related Memecoins Surge
Several memecoins named after Trump saw their prices spiking after the assassination attempt. For instance, MAGA price rose by 30.23% over the past 24 hours, according to CryptoSlate data.
Similarly, Donald Tremp (TREMP) price surged by 67% following the attack, according to CoinMarketCap data.
On the other hand, memecoins named after Biden slipped. For example, BODEN was down 24.70% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Elon Musk Endorses Trump
Trump, formerly a crypto skeptic, has become pro-crypto during his current presidential campaign. He’s vowed to end Biden’s “war on crypto” after re-taking the White House, garnering widespread support from the crypto community, which has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into his campaign.
Following the attack, billionaire CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, Elon Musk, released his first public endorsement for Trump. In a post on X, he noted:
“I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery.”
Trump was previously said to have held meetings with Trump to discuss crypto policy.
Justin Sun, the founder of Tron blockchain, sharing Musk’s X post, noted:
“[Trump] is a better choice for the crypto industry and can ensure fairer treatment.”
Among other notable crypto figures who have endorsed Trump are the Gemini exchange co-founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and Kraken founder Jesse Powell.
