Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential breakout with growing institutional investment, miner holdings, and ETP flows signaling increasing demand, according to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report.
The report also emphasized the strengthening correlation between ETP flows and BTC price due to institutional adoption in the Bitcoin market.
ETP Correlation
The report showed that weekly net inflows into US Bitcoin ETPs reached $19.4 billion by mid-October, with institutional inflows driving much of the price discovery process.
The correlation between weekly ETP inflows and Bitcoin returns was notably strong, with an R² value of 0.3422, indicating that institutional money is increasingly leading Bitcoin’s price movements. VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Mathew Sigel, stated that institutional participation through these investment vehicles is impacting Bitcoin’s price and reinforcing its position in the global financial system.
According to VanEck’s analysis, daily ETP flows have shown predictive power for Bitcoin price changes in after-hours trading, highlighting the influence of institutional inflows on the market.
VanEck also noted that the relationship between ETP flows and Bitcoin returns strengthened during specific periods from July to September, showing how US market momentum spills over into global crypto markets.
Macro-Hedge
Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a “macro-hedge” against economic instability and market volatility, attracting institutional investors seeking portfolio protection from inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical uncertainty. Recent trends in miner activity and corporate treasury strategies have further reinforced this narrative.
Vaneck highlighted that US-listed miners added 2% to their Bitcoin treasuries in September, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects among institutions. Additionally, there was an 8% increase in corporate treasury investments in Bitcoin, further supporting its status as a store of value.
Market Sentiment and Dominance
Market sentiment around Bitcoin has improved, with nearly 90% of Bitcoin addresses now in profit. Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market has reached 57%, the highest since April 2021, solidifying its position as the leading store of value in the crypto ecosystem.
The report also highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience in regulatory environments, remaining insulated from pressure as US regulators scrutinize non-Bitcoin digital assets. In terms of regional trends, US and European traders have been the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price performance.
