Polymarket betting markets have seen a surge in activity revolving around Donald Trump’s return to the social media platform X, formerly Twitter. These markets enable participants to bet on various outcomes related to Trump’s online behavior and public statements, with substantial amounts of money placed on specific predictions.
One of the most active markets focuses on the number of tweets Trump will make in the upcoming week. Participants can wager on different ranges, from 11-15 tweets to over 50 tweets in a single week. Currently, the largest bets are in the 11-15 range, with $72,399 in wagers, representing a 28% probability. Another heavily bet-on range is the possibility of Trump tweeting more than 50 times weekly, which has an 18% chance with $71,713 wagered.
Disputed Market on Trump Activity
Another notable Polymarket market is focused on whether Trump will post on X again before the November 2024 election. With total bets reaching $829,707, this market currently predicts a 100% certainty that Trump will post before the election deadline. The market considers any original post, reply, or quote tweet by Trump from his verified @realDonaldTrump account as a “Yes,” excluding retweets.
Though attracting attention for the bets placed, this market is under dispute due to ambiguity in defining a tweet, especially given the intricacies of X’s platform.
Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle to resolve its prediction markets, giving a decentralized and trustless resolution mechanism for determining outcomes, such as Trump’s social media activity.
The dispute resolution process involves the UMA CTF Adapter acting as a bridge between the Optimistic Oracle and Polymarket, ensuring market resolution within a time frame.
Additional Trump X Prediction Markets
Another market was dedicated to predicting Trump’s statements during his interview with Elon Musk. Participants placed bets on various topics he might mention, with significant activity observed, particularly around the keyword “MAGA” and other unexpected topics like “tampon.”
The resolution of these markets revealed outcomes for specific keywords, with notable shifts in betting values during the interview.
